My firewall wasn't the problem and my internet is more than fine. I finally updated on attempt 4 and the big red "activate" is gone. Changed updates to "notify me". I guess I'll reply again if the popup kills me again. Just thought I'd let this issue be known.
I don't think that Updates were the problem, as the renewal popup is different and isolated from 'Program' updates. I have had Program Updates set to Manual for some considerable time and that doesn't stop the Renewal notification popup.
You could consider using Silent Mode when running games - Settings > General > Notifications - Use silent mode.
This does mean silent, no alerts, no notifications, no interaction, so I personally recommend using whilst gaming only. Outside of gaming, ads may well be a pain, that is the cost of free (I just ignore them) and as Asyn said the paid versions have options to disable ads/promotions.