I can confirm : I got the same pop-up a few days ago while my license is valid till 31 augustus 2021.
It has nothing to do with your settings afaik, and it is annoying !
For exampe NordVPN does this different :
When my 3 year NordVPN license ended last April, I got an email one month in advance basicly saying : " We are happy that you are our customer, and if you log in to your account with this link we will give you 1 free month extra "
When claiming the 1 free month extra, I was also notified that my license would end somewhere in May now.
And when I extended my license with 2 more years, I got another email in which they thanked me and with again a link for 1 free month extra.
I think that is smart marketing !
Greetz, Red.