Thanks to you both. I was going to ask whether avast.setup is actually identical each time, but you have already answered - I think (usually, but not always?). I've had a quick look at the file a few times over the last couple of days when the warning comes up, and it seems perfectly OK, and dated 30th June like a lot of other avast files.
I'm using Outpost free version, which is an ancient program, but very easy to use, and generally seems to work well enough for my needs. I run with it set to 'Block most' which doesn't allow anything to connect that hasn't been given permission, but warns when a file with a name previously allowed, but which Outpost detects as altered, as in this case, tries to. Maybe I should just try re-installing and setting up Outpost.