Even with a vpn traffic still goes through Chinese servers.
Since I can't test it myself I have to guess here, but if a vpn is not secured the updates (and other things) are still blocked.
If you still have contact with someone in China who has the same problem, (s)he could try avast secureline and see if it makes a difference.
Amongst other things, the TGF is about protectionism.
Ofcourse when you ask, the Chinese government denies it.
It would honestly not surprise me if there is something like a back door in that Qihoo.