@ Asyn
When April 2014 comes around, many will ignore that as well. We already see it in the viruses and worms forums with people not on XP SP3, some as low as the original XP, some SP1 and many on SP2 so none of those are getting security updates.
By the time 2014 comes around, windows8 or whatever it will be called will be a reality (a factor more likely to make people move) and windows9 will be being hyped for preview/alpha/beta release (which may make them wait)
@ SpeedyPC
The biggest looser in this is MS, Vista is an unqualified failure and win7 is up to a point reversing that trend. But MS are shooting themselves in the foot at every turn in trying to kill XP by not including XP compatibility with XP, e.g. with IE9 and the new Live features (never have got on with the name).
In ditching 53% of your market share and effectively driving them in other directions, if a factor in their overall OS market share. No retailer in their right minds would bar 53% of their potential customers and stay in business.
I read a very interesting article in a magazine 'Micro Mart' about windows8 (Microsoft's Last Chance Salon) on this very thing and if it doesn't adapt to a changing market place and the way we use technology or don't go betting there being a windows10.